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Duolingo, Inc. (DUOL)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Duolingo delivered a high-quality quarter: revenue grew 41% YoY to $252.3M, Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded ~4 pts YoY to 31.2%, and net income rose 84% YoY to $44.8M .
- Results beat Wall Street consensus: revenue topped by ~4.8% and S&P normalized EPS by ~188%; management raised FY25 bookings, revenue, and Adjusted EBITDA margin guidance midpoints (to 32% bookings growth, 36% revenue growth, and ~28.75% margin) . Revenue/EPS consensus comparisons are shown below with S&P Global values*.
- Positive gross margin mix/timing: gross margin improved sequentially by 130 bps to 72.4% on lower-than-expected AI costs and ads strength; FY25 gross margin YoY decline now seen at ~100 bps vs ~150 bps previously .
- Near-term catalysts: Energy pacing rollout (boosting DAUs, time spent, conversion), continued Max enhancements (Video Call engagement, bilingual options), Asia/China momentum (Luckin partnership), and potential payment cost tailwinds from web checkout testing .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Broad-based outperformance: total bookings and revenue up 41% YoY; subscription revenues up 46% YoY; Adjusted EBITDA up 64% with margin at 31.2% .
- Engagement and conversion tailwinds: Energy pacing “increased DAUs, median time spent learning and subscriber conversion” on iOS, a rare multi-metric move per management .
- Strategic product momentum: Chess DAUs surpassed 1M on iOS/UI-English; Max share grew to ~8% of subs; ARPU up 6% YoY on mix shift to higher-priced tiers .
Quotes:
- “We exceeded our own high expectations for bookings and revenue this quarter, and did it while expanding profitability.” — CEO Luis von Ahn
- “We expanded gross margin by 130 basis points to 72.4% from Q1 to Q2, due to lower-than-expected AI costs and strength in our ads business.” — Shareholder letter
What Went Wrong
- Max mix grew less than expected: Max penetration increased to ~8% but under plan due to Super growing faster; beginner users find Video Call too difficult—driving focus on bilingual/engagement improvements .
- U.S. growth deceleration tied to social sentiment: DAU growth landed at the low end (40%) after pausing “edgier” social posts to restore sentiment, mainly impacting U.S. youth cohorts .
- DET macro headwinds: Duolingo English Test softer given reduced international student applications to U.S./U.K.; management embedded this in guidance .
Financial Results
KPI trends
Consensus vs Actual (S&P Global)*
*Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Additional detail (Q2 2025 income statement highlights):
- Other (expense) income, net: +$1.66M
- Interest income: +$11.43M
- Provision for income taxes: $1.67M
Guidance Changes
FX commentary: Over half of bookings come from outside the U.S.; a 1% change in USD vs basket ≈ ~$3M bookings impact for remainder of year .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “We expanded gross margin by 130 basis points to 72.4% from Q1 to Q2, due to lower-than-expected AI costs and strength in our ads business.” — Shareholder letter
- “Energy… increased DAUs, median time spent learning well, and subscriber conversion. We have rarely seen a feature move more than one of these metrics, let alone all three.” — Shareholder letter; Luis elaboration
- “The percentage of subscribers that are Max… grew to 8% in Q2… Max grew a little less than we expected, but Super grew even more.” — Luis
- “China… is our fastest growing market… partnership with Luckin Coffee… was a pretty big boon.” — Luis
- “We can send people to a web purchase flow… minimally lose bookings… significantly increases our profit because… Stripe… ~2% vs Apple 30%.” — Luis
- “We’re raising our full-year Adjusted EBITDA margin guidance to 28.75%… incremental margin of 37.4%.” — Shareholder letter
- Music strategy: acquired NextBeat team to make Music course “as fun and joyful as the best mobile games.” — Press release
Q&A Highlights
- DAU moderation and social sentiment: 40% YoY DAU growth at lower end of guided range due to pausing edgier social content; impact concentrated in U.S. youth cohorts; sentiment now positive; expect stability near term .
- Max trajectory: penetration ~8% subs; beginner difficulty in Video Call addressed by bilingual flows and engagement improvements; renewal analytics forthcoming; LTV optimization drives tier surfacing .
- Gross margin drivers: AI unit costs trending down; ad pricing contributed; web checkout impact limited near term due to revenue recognition .
- Energy rollout: >50% of iOS DAUs; Android behind; targeting broad completion in “couple of months”; designed to monetize high-usage free cohorts .
- Regional growth: Asia fastest, China above expectations; Max in China pending local LLM approval; small incremental marketing in U.S. planned .
- DET headwinds: weaker international student applications pressuring DET within “Other” revenues .
Estimates Context
- Revenue beats and raised guide: Q2 actual $252.3M vs consensus $240.8M (+4.8%)*; FY25 revenue guide raised to $1,011–$1,019M .
- EPS beats on S&P normalized basis: Q2 Primary EPS 1.6979 vs 0.5895 consensus (+188%)*; note normalization differences vs GAAP diluted EPS $0.91 .
- Implications: Street likely to raise FY25 revenue/EBITDA estimates on improved margin trajectory (AI costs) and higher top-line guide; monitor DET and Max mix in models .
*Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Strong beat-and-raise: revenue, net income, and Adjusted EBITDA significantly up; FY25 bookings/revenue/EBITDA margin guides raised—supports positive estimate revisions .
- Margin trajectory improving: sequential gross margin expansion and smaller FY25 YoY decline indicate AI cost tailwinds; more optimizations expected in 2H .
- Product-led monetization: Energy pacing boosts engagement and conversion; ARPU up 6% YoY on mix to higher-priced tiers; Max enhancements (Video Call) and bilingual tests should widen appeal .
- Geographic growth lever: Asia/China momentum (Luckin partnership); Max pending local LLM approval; selective U.S. marketing should mitigate prior deceleration .
- Payments optionality: web checkout materially lowers payment fees; accounting limits near-term P&L impact but long-term gross margin leverage could be meaningful .
- Watch DET and social: DET remains a macro headwind; social content strategy returning to edgier playbook—key for top-of-funnel virality .
- Near-term trading lens: beat/raise plus improved GM outlook and Energy/Max execution are positive catalysts; risks include DET softness and Max beginner friction (being addressed) .